Paul Snoey Articles

Clark County posted  new data for the two week average ending September 2nd.  It’s evident that the case rate/100,000 has slowed.  However, new cases in Clark are still at an all time high.  But perhaps we’re nearing the crest.  

For the United States today, Worldometer posted 160,748 new cases and 1929 deaths.

For Washington State, the posting was 3960 new cases and 64 deaths today.

For Clark County, the posting was 217 new cases and 5 deaths today

For Cowlitz County, it was 119 new cases and 10 deaths.

These are not good numbers. 

This photo was taken last year when there was a great deal of smoke in the air and it got dark early.     These birds went into the chimney sooner  than they usually did. It has always been a pleasure to watch these acrobatic flyers.  They were a nuisance for my neighbors.    Earlier this summer, screens were placed over the chimney,   These birds can no longer roost here.  I miss watching them.  I hope they find another place nearby.

by Paul Snoey

Covid-19 is still surging and the above graphic was posted on the Clark County Health Department Covid website on Thursday.  The next posting will be September 2nd  and may be higher.   It’s a tough time to be responsible for the well being of others.   It’s very clear that the delta variant is surging everywhere.

The good news is that  the world surge, driven by the delta variant, seems to be declining for both new cases and for deaths.  Hopefully the US, Washington, and Clark County will follow.  We are not there yet and cases and deaths are still surging.

On Friday, new cases in the US were 190,370 on the Worldometer dashboard and deaths were  at 1,304.  For the US, the surge is nearing the peak we had in January.  For Washington State, there were 4697 new cases and 30 deaths Friday.  Clark County recorded 221 new cases with no reports of death.   It’s possible that Clark County may exceed the peaks in December of last year or January of this year. It may happen in the next week or two.  

With school starting Tuesday, it will be challenging:  The delta variant is twice  as infectious as the alpha variant, and according to the CDC, the viral load can be 1000 times higher.  In Oregon,15% percent of cases are breakthrough cases.  That means vaccinated can be infected and pass it on.   The next few weeks are going to be very telling.    With hospitalizations in Oregon and Washington stretched thin by covid cases and news of increasing pediatric cases from the delta variant, it’s hard not to be anxious.

By Paul Snoey 

In driving downtown yesterday, I saw some women and children on Pioneer Street.  They  were protesting having to wear masks and holding up some homemade signs saying so.  There is a lot of opposition to wearing masks and even a strong antivaxx movement.  The science behind the value of getting vaccinated and the value of wearing masks has been well researched and documented in study after study. Many people don’t trust government, don’t trust CDC, Anthony Fauci ,and the National Institute of Health and Center for Infectious Diseases.

Who can you trust then?  Where is the most reliable sources of information about COVID and it’s prevention?   Recently, I looked into a couple of places that were the most trustworthy: That would be the New England Journal of Medicine and The  Journal of the American Medical Association. There are letters in each and articles that discuss wearing masks and the efficacy of  vaccinations.  It cites careful studies and investigations that state the case for masks and vaccinations quite clearly.

My health care provider is in Oregon.  I received an e-mail  from them stating  that hospitals in Oregon may not have enough beds by Labor day.  It’s true; Oregon is having it’s highest surge  of COVID 19 yet.  There is an influx of patients coming to emergency rooms and hospitals are filling with patients.  The state of Washington is also  approaching a new peak in cases.  Yesterday,  there were 3781 new cases in Washington.  On August 12th, our county cited  191 cases/100,000 over a 14 day period.  Today’s posting was for 290/100,000.  That will put us in the highest category.  According to the CDC, over 93% of US cases are of the delta variant of SARS-COV-2, the virus that causes COVID 19.  It is more transmissible and the viral load a patient has can be much higher that the other strains.  That means that patient is putting out a lot of virions with each cough or just by breathing.  Yesterday new cases in the United states had a seven day average of over 130,000 new cases and for the first time in months there were over 1000 deaths.  Since there is a lag of two to three weeks between the beginning of a surge and deaths, that number will get higher.

School starts August 31st.  With such high levels of COVID in the community, it will be difficult.   Beginning next week, the state is requiring masking up again for everyone, vaccinated or not, when  indoors.  It is for a very good reason.  Even so, we may be  in for a tough time.  The delta variant is brutal.  Back in June we were in good shape and rules were being relaxed.   The Delta  variant has changed that.

People opposing masks and refusing to get vaccinated may want to reconsider.  The people in hospitals, ICUs, and on ventilators are overwhelmingly the unvaccinated.

BY Paul Snoey  

Note from Kathy: This last flu season was almost eliminated because people were wearing masks and not spreading the flu virus. I think that’s an excellent testimony to their effectiveness.

I like autumn.  If there has been enough rain, then the flows of Gee Creek and Allen Canyon Creek have been restored.  It also means that brown lawns and grassy fields have turned green again and the fire danger is over.   The sun is lower, it is cooler, and the sun enhances the yellows and reds in photographs.  So, there is a lot to look foreword to.

We may have to wait a wait a while for that to happen:   The National Weather Service has predicted some very hot weather this week.  It will be temperatures over ninety beginning Tuesday and lasting into the week-end.  Three or four of those days could be over 100 degrees.  NWS says it won’t be as bad as the heat we had at the end of June.  Still, it may be hot enough to cause problems for our drought stressed area and could increase the fire danger. To make matters worse, the NWS is hinting that another dangerous heat wave could come later next week.  However, NWS states, it is too soon to tell.

The heat in June was before the drought conditions we are in now plus the flows on Gee Creek and Allen Canyon were good then.  Now Gee Creek is a mere trickle and there is no flow on Allen Canyon Creek.  There are just a few pools left.   There are Coho, cutthroat, and rainbow trout in Gee Creek and warm water and low flows are  a threat.

It does help to water trees and plants if possible.  Water needs to be available for roots to uptake and carry up to the leaves.  There is a lot we just can’t do.  When we finally do get to autumn conditions, I am wondering how much damage the heat and drought will have done this summer.  All things considered, it seems we  are living in times of extremes.

by Paul Snoey

This photo was taken last week in  Abrams Park.  It’s of the collapsed slope across from the Frank Burris Stage.  The holes in the bank have been from children digging tunnels.  The sand is soft and  easy to excavate.   This area is unstable and children should not be playing here.  Last spring  when the big cedar came down, it was  on a  mild day with  no rain and no wind.  A month ago I saw a girl with a shovel digging into this bank.  I sent an e-mail about it to Bryan Kast, the public works director.  He responded  by thanking me for the heads-up with a copy to Kelly Melroy, the facilities supervisor.  Since that time, there has been many more holes dug.  Also, more material has receded below the top of the area, leaving an overhang.  This is a hazardous area and the city has a responsibility to keep people, especially children, out of there.  

By Paul Snoey